SORRELL'S FANTASY FOOTBALL 
SEASON XIII
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WEEK
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Newsletter: Week 16 Super Bowl It looks like we used up our allotment of suspense during the regular season, as this week dealt us three blowouts, and no surprises. Though, you won't find the commissioner complaining. We'll recap last week, preview next week, and finish up the second installment of "Defensive Liability." |
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| Scores | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Standings | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rosters | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Transactions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Earnings | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rules | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| POW! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Last Week
The Toilet Bowl gave us the usual excitement, with the outcome only in doubt until about two o'clock. Randy showed up to play, but Bruce's unlucky team showed who really deserved to be in the playoffs by putting up ninety points, his best week of the season. Prediction: Branden will jump out to a lead on Saturday, but Chris will storm back on Sunday after Alexander puts it in the endzone a few times. Chris 73, Branden 51 Well, he did jump out to a lead, but not much. Branden had three of his top scorers on Saturday net him a combined eight points, which pretty much put the nail in the coffin right there. Alexander only put it in the endzone once, but the rest of his team put it in the endzone a whole lot more. Despite not playing Tiki Barber, who had 249 yards and two scores, Chris demolishes Branden to the tune of 75-26. Prediction: Dave will need Shayne Graham and the Giants D to explode to have a chance, and I think they will do well. The wildcard may be the Pittsburgh defense. They're facing the Vikings. Will the steady Brad Johnson cave? Will Michael Bennett cough up the ball a couple more times? Dave will scare the shit out of Beau, but I still can't predict a victory here. Beau 48, Dave 44. Graham did well but the Giants D did not. And Brad Johnson did cave. Dave said he needed a 27 point day from LT2 to have a shot. He got three points, struggling through an injury. Had he scored 27, Dave would've tied Beau. But it was an uphill climb the whole weekend, as Larry Johnson scores Beau 19 points on Saturday. With no weakness throughout the rest of the roster, Beau coasts to a 66-42 victory. |
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Useless Info
~After netting himself the worst score of the season last week, with 27 points, Bruce ties for the best score of the season this week, with 90 points. Talk about standard deviation. ~Meanwhile, Branden tops Bruce's low performance of the year with 26 points. ~My perception is that the Toilet Bowl almost always has a team that scores a million points, usually out scoring the playoff teams. Well, let's take a look at previous Toilet Bowl scores. 2005: Bruce 90, Randy.... Bruce has the week's high score. I also seem to remember a Toilet Bowl where Shoe scored over 100 points, but that was before '97 and under the old scoring system. ~Of the past 8 documented toilet bowls, the winner had the high score the last four years, and six times total. ~See 2002, where Ryan scored 70 points? That was the year the toilet bowl contestants picked the other person's team, with the goal of scoring the LOWEST possible points. So, Shoe picked what he thought were Ryan's worst eight players, and he STILL scores 70 points. ~But perhaps the most shocking statistic is that Randy has only been in two of the last nine toilet bowls. Ryan, who has won the most Super Bowls, has been in there three times, as has Chris, who is quite familiar with the contest since coming to the league. ~Branden has no player score ten points, choking come playoff time. But he should remember the last time this happened: he trounced Ken last year after he had only twenty total points in the second round of the playoffs. ~The last time the #1 and #2 seeds met in the Super Bowl? Just three years ago, when Beau and Heather met up. Beau was the #1 seed, and lost. Interestingly, the #1 seed this time has two players the #1 seed had then (Shaun Alexander and Tampa Bay), while the #2 seed also has two players that the #2 seed had then (Chad Johnson and Pittsburgh defense). The former's scored better, but it wasn't enough. |
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Defensive Liability: Part Two
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| Last week we took an attempt at discovering how good each team really was this season, and who deserved to go to the playoffs. While Branden took minor offense to being pitted somewhere near Randy's team, nobody disagreed with the fact that Bruce belonged in the playoffs. The only reason seems to be his unlucky schedule and the current rules system. This week we'll see what other systems are available that may prevent such unfairness in the future and would still be desireable on a week-to-week basis. In case you forgot, this is what was determined should have been the actual standings this year, if things were fair:
Dave and Chris' teams were fairly equal, so flipping their positions would also be fair. The rest of the standings I'm fairly convinced are accurate. Method One: Community Schedule You don't play any head-to-head matchups. Instead, the top 50% of scorers each week receive a victory. For example, in Week 1, Randy would have won instead of Beau, because he had the third highest point total while Beau was fourth best. Any ties for third highest score would be given a partial victory. Here is how the season would have unfolded with this schedule.
Pros: The only discrepancy between these results and the "fair standings" is that Dave outperforms Chris more than I thought he would. Otherwise, the order is perfect. Cons: We had three ties in Week 2, which creates an unever number. Also, head-to-head matchups are a lot of fun. When playing the community, you're never quite sure who to root against, and you can't focus all your smack-talk on one person. In other words, boring. Method Two: Total Points Modification This method is suggested by Branden. The schedule remains the same. However, the standings are determined in a different method. Basically, you are awarded points for having a good record and points for scoring well. The team with the best record receives six points, the second best record receives five points, and so-on. The worst record receives one point. Additionally, the team with the most points is awarded six points, while the team with the lowest point total is awarded one point. The two are added together. The most any team can receive is twelve points, and the least any team can receive is two points. Below is this year's standings, with this system added.
Pros: Bruce is in the playoffs as he should be, although barely, in third place. And Beau is given first place with his dominating team. Cons: Dave and Branden are tied for fourth place. What's the tiebreaker? If it's head-to-head matchup, Dave wins the playoff spot. If you go by total points, it's given to Branden, despite only being ahead by five total points. Another negative of this system is that it decreases the drama near the end of the season and makes things more confusing. Imagine this scenario: Dave secures a playoff spot with a win and a Branden loss. If both Dave and Branden win or lose, then Dave needs to be outscored by Branden by only five points in order to make the playoffs. Method Three: Community Modification Basically, combine the last two methods. Again, standings are determined by total points. However, instead of awarding a possible total of twelve points at the end of the season, award a possible twelve points every week. Wins are given six points. Losses are given one point. Ties would be given 3.5 points. High score each week is given six points, while the second-highest is awarded five points, and so-on. Total possible points? 168. The lowest you could score is 28 points. For example, let's take a look at Week 1 again. Bruce, Dave, and Beau would each get six points for winning. Branden, Chris, and Randy would each get one point for losing. Dave would get six points for getting high score. Bruce would get five points for the second-highest score, and so-on, with Branden scoring one point for having low score. Here's how the standings would have looked like after Week One.
And, the standings at the end of the season.
Pros: The standings are pretty accurate. Beau has a commanding first place lead. Chris barely beats Bruce on the account of his excellent record, while Bruce still doesn't sweat it out, easily taking third place. Branden is securely in fifth place. Eight times Branden had either the worst score or the second-worst score, which really kills. And then, of course, there's Randy in his favorite spot. Head-to-head matchups still account for 50% of your point total, with the community schedule accounting for the other 50%. Cons: Slightly convoluted, but less so than the previous method. Conclusions I really like the last method. I think it's easy to figure out. We can still keep a regular head-to-head schedule. And it is very likely to produce fair standings, no matter what schedule you're unlucky to have drawn. I would love to hear everyone's thoughts.
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SUPERBOWL PREVIEW Chris (10-4-1) vs. Beau (9-6) Previous Matchups Though Chris was probably hoping he wouldn't have to play Beau, it'll be sweet revenge if he can manage to beat the guy that handed him three of his four losses. Beau has one of the best teams in SFFL history, but it is hard to consider him the favorite this week. Besides Carson Palmer, the league's two best fantasy producing quarterbacks are Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, both of whom Beau has. Proving fantasy football is unfair, both teams have their playoff seeds locked up, despite both having two weeks to play. Manning is likely to only play one half (as is Marvin Harrison, Beau's best receiver). And even if Belichick holds to his word that Brady will play the whole game, that injury could say otherwise. That said, the rest of Beau's team has very favorable matchups. Chad Johnson faces Buffalo. Rackers gets the Eagles. Gates gets the Chiefs. Pittsburgh gets the Browns, who see the endzone once every other week. But his two backs, Larry Johnson and Clinton Portis, have two very tough matchups against the Chargers and Giants, respectively. Of course, Larry Johnson has had two tough matchups in a row and we all know how that turned out. Meanwhile, Chris' team has it even easier. All of his starters have something to play for. Hasselbeck and Alexander are facing a Colts team that doesn't need to win. Rudi faces a creampuff Buffalo D, but Tiki Barber is still a fantastic option. Fitzgerald has the Eagles, and Smith has the Texans. Wilkins gets the 49ers, and Tampa Bay gets the Falcons, who have been awful as of late. The only bad matchup is Randy Moss against the Broncos. Fitzgerald will have a third string QB throwing to him, but that same third stringer tossed one to Fitz just this past week. Though it should be expected that the Johnson Boys and Rackers will make the week competitive for Beau, the question marks at QB and with Marvin will likely be too hard to overcome. I'm a perfect 3-0 so far predicting this postseason, and I hope that streak is broken. Chris 68, Beau 57 |
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