Newsletter: Week 15

PLAYOFFS

Week 14 had the most suspense in recent memory, with three teams' playoff chances on the line. But did the best teams make it to the dance? Read on to find out. Also, our playoff matches will be previewed, and the final results of The Trade (TM) are announced.

The matchup between Chris and Beau was fairly meaningless, as both had secured a playoff spot. But Beau was playing for seed and money. Not only did Beau net his 4th high score of the year, he beat Chris for the third time this season. This week's POW helped make it all possible, giving Beau a 85-42 victory, and 2nd seed in the playoffs.

Branden matched up against Bruce in a must-win situation, but Bruce forgot to show up, with none of his players scoring more than six points. Branden didn't take any chances, though, and made it a blowout, ensuring a spot in the playoffs with a 68-27 trouncing.

Finally, Dave had to beat Randy to give himself a spot and knocking Bruce out. Going into Sunday night, he held a nine-point lead on Randy, who had Donald Driver. However, Driver didn't see the end zone, and Dave escapes with a 58-50 win, despite having no quarterback and receiving little from LT2.

~But Randy did accomplish the feat of scoring the least amount of points while also giving up the most.

~Randy's .214 winning percentage ties for the worst in SFFL history. Shoe also finished with a 3-11 record in his last year in the league.

~When The Trade(TM) was made, Beau and Branden were a combined 2-10. Their record after that? 13-5, and playoff berths for both of them. Though, it is likely that both of them still would have made the playoffs without making the trade at all.

~Chris got a combined ZERO points from his wide receivers. Bet you can't guess the last FFLer to accomplish that feat. Ah, you did guess it. Yup, it was Randy, Week 7 of last year. Torry Holt, Daniel Graham, and Donté Stallworth all had zeroes. His opponent that week, Branden, got a combined ONE point from his wide receivers. But Branden got 31 points from Priest that week, more than Randy's whole team.

~Before the season started, some people were worried that scoring would explode with only six teams in the league. I did some research and discovered that scoring last year, when we had ten teams in the league, was nearly identical to the year before when we had only six. Well, either NFL teams didn't spread the ball around much this year or Dave didn't put all his scorers on the bench. We averaged 56.1 points per contest this year, three points more than the last two years. That's 42 points extra per team.

~In fact, that's a record. The only other season which came close was 2000, when each team averaged 55.3 points per week. But to be fair, scoring was slightly more difficult under 2000 rules.

~Dave squeaked into the playoffs with four consecutive wins to end the regular season.  The last person to do that was Heather, back in 2002. She went on to win the Super Bowl.  But then, she had a quarterback.

~Beau scored 912 points, averaging 65.1 per contest.  That's good for second all-time in SFFL history. Last year, Ryan averaged 65.2 per week (in a ten-man league--wow!). Beau didn't score less than 45 points in any week all season. Ryan didn't have a week under forty points last year. So what did Ryan do in the playoffs? Thirty points in his only shot.

With Dave's schedule, Bruce's team dominates the league, yet it doesn't seem to benefit anybody else, depsite the fact Dave's team allowed the 5th least points. Dave faced high score three times, nothing out of sight. But Dave only faced low score of the week one time, so not too many automatic wins.

As with Dave's schedule, only Bruce and Randy improve their records, but everyone is around the .500 mark. This indicates that Branden's opponents either scored a ton or nothing.  Indeed, Branden gave up over 70 points four times, but gave up less than 40 points three times. Interestingly, with this schedule Beau starts the season 0-5 but rallies with 7 wins in his final nine weeks.

As expected, Bruce had a bitch of a schedule. In fact, Bruce is only one of two teams to manage a .500 record with it. And Randy, somehow, does even worse. How Beau gets 3.5 additional victories out of it is beyond me. Dave starts out great here, with a 4-0-1 record out of the gate, but loses eight of his final nine.

Even harder than Bruce's schedule. Beau is the only one who manages a winning record with it, and Bruce holds his own once again. Randy's actually in 4th place here! Chris takes a huge whoopin, and doesn't make the playoffs here. Of course, neither do Dave or Branden

Randy's team gave up the most points, but his schedule wasn't all that tough as you can see. Four teams still have winning records with it. In fact, besides Chris' schedule, this one produces the best records. Part of this is due to Randy facing the two highest scores of the year, when Beau scored 90 and 85 points, inflating the total points, making his schedule look worse than it really was.

Conclusions

Bruce was royally shafted. He has the second best team in the league, yet is stuck with the only schedule (except possibly Beau's) that doesn't get him in the playoffs.

Branden had the third easiest schedule, but the only one that gets him in the playoffs. Interesting. He has easily the 2nd worst team in the league, barely better than Randy's.

Randy doesn't make the playoffs no matter how hard the schedule gods try. But it is apparent that his team still greatly underachieved. He has the worst record with all schedules except one.

Chris' team is still playoff caliber, but with most schedules, only marginally. He probably doesn't make the playoffs with half of the schedules out there.

Next Week

In part two of this segment, we will look at some possible ways of tweaking the rules, so teams like Bruce's have a significantly less chance of missing the playoffs, when nothing but bad luck kept him out.

PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

Chris (9-4-1) vs. Branden (7-7)

Previous Matchups
Week 3 Chris 69, Branden 51
Week 10 Chris 86, Branden 29
Week 13 Chris 45, Branden 49

Branden's team is hot, having won three straight heading into the playoffs, while Chris has lost twice. Of course, none of that matters now.  It's all about the matchups. And how sweet it is for Chris. Shaun Alexander and company are at the lowly Titans.  Seattle still needs to wrap up home-field advantage, so don't expect them to let up at any time during this contest. Rudi Johnson and Tiki Barber also have sweet matchups. Larry Fitzgerald is at Houston, and Jeff Wilkins gets to kick indoors against the Eagles. None of Chris' starters are likely to have a poor day.  Even Jimmy Smith and Randy Moss play the 49ers and Browns, respectively.

Thankfully for Branden, his matchups don't look too tough either.  His three Colts play the Chargers, which is probably the worst news for Branden. The Colts are going to try to win the game, but the Charger D is tough.  Also, the Chargers don't make too many mistakes on offense, which will likely lead to a poor day from the Colts D. After that, things look brighter. Manning and Plaxico face the Chiefs, and three of Branden's running backs play soft defenses. The rest of his receivers have tough matchups, but they're all studs and are bound to break good games anyway.

Prediction: Branden will jump out to a lead on Saturday, but Chris will storm back on Sunday after Alexander puts it in the endzone a few times. Chris 73, Branden 51

Beau (8-6) vs. Dave (7-6-1)

Previous Matchups
Week 2 Beau 47, Dave 50
Week 9 Beau 75, Dave 56
Week 13 Beau 52, Dave 55

Dave's team is really hot with four consecutive wins, and Tomlinson has only been average throughout the streak, but as we all know by now, Dave is playing with only seven guys, barring a Tuiasasopo injury. Regardless, Dave is facing the second best fantasy team in SFFL history, and will be fighting uphill the whole way.

To make matters worse, Tomlinson is facing the Colts. Granted, the Colts D hasn't been superb recently, and the Chargers have to win this game to remain in the playoff chase. Tomlinson is likely to still score, but not the 25+ points that will probably be needed for Dave to win. Want some more bad news?  All of Dave's receivers have tough matchups, except the hot Houshmandzadeh, who's playing the Lions. Reggie Brown's got the Rams, but, hey, it's Reggie Brown. His running backs fare better, with Ronnie Brown and Thomas Jones sporting decent matchups, but both players are just as likely to lay gooseeggs against anybody.

The good news for Dave is that Beau's players also have some tough matchups. Manning and Harrison face the Chargers (though they are weaker against the pass than the run). LJ and Portis have the Giants and Cowboys, two more tough run defenses. Gates has the Colts.  The only great matchups are Chad Johnson vs. the Lions and Neil Rackers against the Texans (if he doesn't reinjure his calf).

Prediction: Dave will need Shayne Graham and the Giants D to explode to have a chance, and I think they will do well.  The wildcard may be the Pittsburgh defense.  They're facing the Vikings.  Will the steady Brad Johnson cave?  Will Michael Bennett cough up the ball a couple more times? Dave will scare the shit out of Beau, but I still can't predict a victory here. Beau 48, Dave 44.

Bruce (6-6-2) vs. Randy (3-11)

Bruce was 3-0 against Randy this season, and the Toilet Bowl shouldn't change things. If Bruce doesn't win by at least twenty points, it will be an upset.