Newsletter: Week 4

What a week! Lots of scoring, lots of close match-ups.  Just what a six-team fantasy league is all about.  But before we get to that, I'd like to thank Bruce for his keen eye. I had inadvertently given one of his players too many points. I may have caught the mistake later, but nevertheless, his honesty changed the results of his matchup. One of the reasons I enjoy this league so much.

And now, on with it!

Last Week

If Branden could have played the low score the past three weeks, he'd have three ties cuz he'd be playing himself.

***YOU EXPERIENCE A CREEPY FEELING OF DEJA VU***

Chris nearly beat Branden with Shaun Alexander and a rejuvenated Culpepper all by themselves. Still, Branden had his best week yet but lost out 69-51.

While neither of them had a player reach 20 points, Randy and Beau duked it out to the last minute.  Literally.  Ahead by 11 points heading into Monday night, Beau had Trent Green and Priest Holmes. Green threw a touchdown with about a minute left to play to bring Beau within one point. Had Kansas City succeeded with their onside kick, Beau might have earned himself a tie with just a few more yards or a win with another score. But, the fantasy gods decided Beau deserved some payback for winning by one point in Week 1. Randy wins 69-68.

But that matchup was dull compared to the one between Bruce and Dave. Bruce had it wrapped up, and could have turned off the television after the afternoon games on Sunday, comfortable that his 77 to 33 lead would hold. But that was before Tomlinson had the game of his life and Jason Elam was, well, Jason Elam. Dave scores a whopping 44 points from those two players to earn himself a tie and remain undefeated. There have been comebacks from larger deficits, but not with only two players left to play. Meanwhile, Bruce ties for the second week in a row. And, of course, both tie for high score, earning money.

Useless Info

~Bruce's two ties is not unprecedented. It has happened twice in SFFL history. Shoe tied twice in 2001 and wound up with a record of 4-8-2. And in 1997, Les had a record of 5-6-2. However, nobody has had three ties, and Bruce has 11 weeks to break the record

~The most total ties in one season is three, which happened in 2001.

FYI:  Two ties equals one win as far as winning percentage goes. As of this writing, Randy is 2-1 and Bruce is 1-0-2, which is equal. If a similar situation happens at the end of the season, we go to tiebreakers as usual, starting with head-to-head matchups first.

~Randy wondered when Tomlinson's other passing touchdown was. That was back in 2003, week 4. He also ran for one touchdown, and he netted Randy 16 fantasy points.

~Tomlinson had one other week almost as spectacular as this one. Back in Week 13 of 2002, he ran for three touchdowns and had 271 combined yards, for 28 fantasy points. Randy had him again, but this time didn't pick him in favor of Curtis Martin and Jerome Bettis, who combined for three points. Sadly, Randy still beat Bruce that week 39-26.

~Branden's unlikely feat of having the lowest score three consecutive weeks may have never happened before in SFFL (believe it or not, I don't feel like checking).  It has never happened to start the season.

~Think Branden starting 4 players from the same team in one game is strange? Not really. Randy has done it before, seven times! But get this, twice he used five players from the same team.  FIVE! What's even more amazing, is that Randy was 4-3 in those matchups. Six of those seven matchups were in 1997 with the Broncos, and even stranger still, not one of those six times did Randy pick the same Bronco lineup (except the two times he picked five players).

Below are the historical results of such endeavors.

Year	Players	Their Points	Result
2005	Manning, Harrison, Vanderjagt, Colts D	20	L
2001	Testaverde, Martin, Chrebet, Coles	20	L
1997	Elway, Sharpe, Elam, Denver D	23	L
1997	Sharpe, McCaffrey, Elam, Denver D	38	L
1997	Elway, Sharpe, McCaffrey, Elam, Denver D	33	W
1997	Elway, McCaffrey, Elam, Denver D	25	W
1997	Elway, McCaffrey, Sharpe, Denver D	14	W
1997	Elway, Sharpe, McCaffrey, Elam, Denver D	47	W

~The second to last matchup, where Randy scored 14 points, were all compliments of the defense. The three guys on offense combined for zero points.

~The line in red was actually the second week of the playoffs where Randy cruised to a victory on the backs of the Super Bowl headed Broncos. Unfortunately, our Super Bowl is not recorded on the website.  It is likely to assume Randy picked at least four Broncos in that game. And, of course, we all know how that turned out.

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Now that Dave has suffered the agony of not winning one week, it's time to be prepared for the wholesale venue that is Dave's team. Sure, he's bound to make twenty trades or so on the free agent market, but if you're in the right place at the right time you can take advantage of the situation, in an equitable fashion, of course.

Trading With Dave: A Tutorial

Only one trade has been pulled off successfully with Dave, and this is an utter shame. Back in 2003, Dave decided that for Branden's Christmas gift he could have Terrell Owens for Chris Chambers. Straight up. And Christmas did indeed come early for Branden.  Here are the stats for those two players, circa 2003.

	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	Total Fantasy Points
Chambers	64	963	11	105
Owens	80	1002	9	94

Wow! This almost looks like a good trade! But stats can be deceiving. Let's take a look at their performances strictly after the trade was made.

	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	Total Fantasy Points
Chambers	45	684	8	75
Owens	55	803	8	80

Okay, so it still doesn't look like a bad trade. Of course, we must remember that Dave didn't even have confidence in Chambers after he traded for him.  Case in point, he benched Chambers the week he scored three touchdowns and 21 fantasy points.  Let's look at one more table, this time with the number of points actually scored for each team.

	Points
Chambers	9
Owens	61

Ah, there we go.  In fact, Dave had so little confidence in his pickup that he only picked Chambers three times the rest of the season, getting only 12% of the total points possible. Meanwhile, Branden inexplicably sat Owens once and missed out on a couple touchdowns from him as well, but this article is not about Branden.

So, what do all of these stats tell us? For starters, you can buy low and sell high with Dave. Secondly, he'll give up a year in and year out stud player for a rising star. And finally, even if you give up a star player in return, he won't play him. Nevermind the small sample size.

But before we delve into any specific suggestions, let's take a look at some other patterns from Dave's free agent trades. Remember, Dave is a homer. He loves Vikings. Ignore the fact that he just traded away his only Viking. He'll be chomping at the bit soon to have a little Purple Pride back on his team. Also, Dave is willing to pick up players he's previously released (a skill he learned from Randy). Last year, he booted Antonio Gates and picked him back up four weeks later.  Admittedly, this was a great decision, but it's still something to keep in mind.

Also, history tells us he has bizzare fascinations with the following:

Arizona Cardinals
William Green
Terry Glenn
Redskins Defense
Did I mention Vikings?  He especially likes their kickers.

So with that knowledge in tow, here are some examples to get your mind rolling on the blockbuster deal that may save your season.  We'll be combining several strategies at once.

Buy Low/Sell High
Graciously Offer Him	Keenan McCardell
Expect In Return	Joe Horn

A smart player will immediately sign Paul Edinger (who kicked four field goals last week!) and dangle him on a string.

Vikings Homer (The Kicker Theory)
Graciously Offer Him	Paul Edinger
Expect In Return	Jason Elam

Note: William Green could also be acquired and used as bait for the above trade.

Now, these are pretty easy and don't involve much risk or foreplanning. But just wait until LaDainian Tomlinson has two bad weeks in a row (if this ever happens).  Then, you can try this:

Revolving Door + Stud Player for Up-And-Comer + Arizona Cardinals
Graciously Offer Him	Corey Dillon + Larry Fitzgerald
Expect In Return	LaDainian Tomlinson + Redskins Defense

Then two weeks later...

Revolving Door + Stud Player for Up-And-Comer + Arizona Cardinals
Graciously Offer Him	Redskins Defense
Expect In Return	Corey Dillon

Of course, this is just an example. Injuries and other factors certainly will play a part.  Your actual deal may be slightly different. And there's no guarantees that things will work out in the end. If LT breaks a leg, that's just the way fantasy football goes.  And Edinger may wind up with 40 field goals. But even if this happens, be comfortable knowing that if you end up facing Dave in the playoffs, he'll start somebody else who won't score anyway.

So go ahead, make a new friend and improve your team in the process. Everybody wins here.

The Wayback Machine

This week, we'll travel all the way back to the first season.  While there were no records kept of the results, Ryan and Shoe dominated (as they would for years to come). But we're going to look at the scoring system that we started with. Changes will be italicized. This is strictly from memory, but I believe it's pretty accurate. Also note, the two-point converstion didn't exist in 1993.

Passing
3 pts = Touchdown
6 pts = Touchdown of 45 yards or greater
2 pts = 250 yards passing
1 pts = every 50 additional yards passing

Rushing/Receiving
6 pts = Touchdown
12 pts = Touchdown of 45 yards or greater
2 pts = 100 rushing yards
1 pts = every 50 additional yards

**Yards were not combined for rushing and receiving**

Special Teams
6 pts = Touchdown (Punt Return/Kickoff Return)

Kicking
6 pts = Field Goal 45+ yards
3 pts = Field Goal 44 yards or less

Defense
6 pts = Touchdown
2 pts = Safety
1 pts = Sack
1 pts = Interception

***No points were awarded for holding the team to a low score, nor were points awarded for fumble recoveries.***

Despite yards being poorly rewarded, touchdowns were ridiculous, especially for wide receivers (who were much more likely to get a long-distance touchdown). The highest scoring week to date had Shoe netting about 112 points. The main reason? Dan Marino connected with Irving Fryar for three touchdowns, two of them over 45 yards. That by itself was worth 45 points, not including yards. He also had other players with long touchdowns.

In 1995, under an almost indentical scoring system, Beau had Herman Moore, Tim Brown, Carl Pickens, and Isaac Bruce. It's a wonder that team didn't win the Super Bowl. Those four receivers combined for 54 touchdowns! 54! Of course, Beau's rosters typically had winning running backs like Adrian Murrell, Johnny Johnson, and Barry Word. That, however, is teetering close on insulting the commissioner, which is strictly prohibited in the SFFL newsletter.

This Week

Branden (0-3) vs. Beau (1-2)
Dave (2-0-1) vs. Chris (1-1-1)
Bruce (1-0-2) vs. Randy (2-1)

The two undefeated teams remained undefeated after tying one another. But with Chris winning we are left with only one winless team.  And Manning and company can't stay dormant forever. And the only team really hurt by the bye weeks is Beau's, as he'll lose both Hines Ward and the Steeler defense.

BYES: Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburgh

Next Week

Expanded Trade Analysis
More Stuff To Boost Morale!